» Despite increased hardships for those more directly impacted, historical precedent and current indicators signal limited drag on the $29T economy. » Direct federal spending accounts for only ~6% of U.S. GDP (excluding transfers like Social Security, counted in household consumption). » Solely from an economic perspective, continued household consumption and corporate earnings growth sustain demand, framing the shutdown as political dysfunction rather than an economic crisis.

» Unexpected Surge: Gold and silver rallied strongly in 2025 despite moderating inflation and no major global crisis. » Shift from Fiat Currencies: Investors and central banks increased allocations to gold as a neutral store of value amid concerns over global debt and monetary debasement. » Robust Central Bank Demand: Net purchases (19 tons in August, led by Poland) highlight a structural pivot toward hard assets. » Momentum and Industrial Demand: Gold’s rise above $4,000 reflects both institutional buying and momentum flows; silver’s gains are fueled by its dual safe-haven and industrial roles. » Portfolio Implications: Moderate precious metal exposure offers diversification, but equities remain the primary engine for long-term growth.